http://tricities.com/tristate/tri/ne...1-25-0011.html
Overall population in Southwest Virginia continues to decline
Thursday, Jan 25, 2007 - 12:00 AM
David McGee
Staff Write
www.coopercenter.org
The population in most of Southwest Virginia continues to decline, but there were modest gains in Bristol Virginia and two neighboring counties, according to a new study.
This week, the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia released its annual estimate of population changes. The study found booming growth in Northern Virginia, while the numbers of residents in some cities, Southwest and Southside continued to slide.
Over the past six years, the population in the nine counties of Southwest Virginia has declined by about 1,100, the estimates show.
During that time, Bristol Virginia, Washington and Scott counties registered overall gains of 39, 1,396 and 434 residents, respectively.
By contrast, declines in Smyth and Buchanan counties ranked among the 10 highest in the state.
The new figures are important because the state and many local From Page B1 government agencies use them to make decisions on revenue sharing, funding allocation, planning and budgeting.
"The estimates for Southwest are no different than last year or the years before," said Michael Spar, research associate for the center. "Southwest Virginia is chronically, economically depressed. The demographic impact of that, in general, is young people leave to find work elsewhere. The twin impact is the immediate loss of population and they're not there to have children to replenish the population."
As younger people move away, the average age of residents increases, Spar said. The long-term effect is that the number of deaths becomes greater than the number of births.
Spar said the region's few gains in population were a pleasant surprise.
"I looked at Bristol, Washington and Scott and all three experienced negative natural increases ? losing population to deaths. But they also experienced positive in-migration, which was a surprise," Spar said.
Bristol's population grew to 17,406 during the past six years, a 0.2 percent increase over the 2000 Census figure of 17,367, the study shows.
During that time, deaths outnumbered births by 541, while the city gained 579 new residents, the study found.
But city leaders believe the estimate could be low, Interim City Manager Bill Dennison said.
"Let's just say the issue is in doubt because it's based on projections rather than actual counts," Dennison said. "We've had a fair amount of residential construction and there aren't that many vacant dwelling units in the city. Those people are coming from somewhere."
City officials question the accuracy of the 2000 Census count, which forms the basis for the center's estimates, Dennison said.
"If a locality had a low population count on the Census, I'm unsure if it might not bump up the estimate," said Spar, the researcher.
To arrive at its figures, the center compiles the number of building permits issued, births, school enrollment in first through eighth grades, driver's licenses issued and the number of personal and dependant exemptions on state income tax filings, Spar said.
They also try to track "non-standard" living arrangements like college dormitories, jails and prisons, he added.
Deaths also outnumbered births in Washington County by 100. But the county registered a 2.7 percent population gain by adding nearly 1,500 residents.
"That's positive news," said Kenneth Reynolds, chairman of the county's Board of Supervisors. "We've continued to have growth and to attract new people."
Washington County continued gaining, as other counties dipped, because of its quality of life, location and educational opportunities, Reynolds said.
In Scott County, a population decrease of 494 was offset by 927 new residents ? a 1.9 percent gain since 2000.
The state's total population has grown to about 7.6 million, increasing by about 560,000 since the 2000 Census. Virginia has grown at an average of 1.2 percent per year since 2000.
Eleven Virginia localities gained more than 10,000 residents, with Loudoun County gaining more than 100,000 residents ? a 59 percent increase.
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